Friday, March 22, 2013

Is Real Baseball Becoming Fantasy Baseball?

My wife came up with this little nugget after the Angels signed Josh Hamilton away from her Texas Rangers.  We'll get into why she's a Rangers fan on another day...  :noshake:

The answer is, again, a little from column A and a little from column B.  Yes...and no.  The Yankees have been playing fantasy baseball since the late-90's.  They went out and got Paul O'Neil for their World Series run, they also added Jeff Weaver, David Cone, David Wells and Al Leiter along the way.  Crossing into the new millennium, they added Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Mark Teixeria, and Curtis Granderson.  Recently, some other teams have joined the club, notably the aforementioned Angels adding Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols.  The other team in Los Angeles is guilty of this as well; last year the Dodgers traded for Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, then adding Zach Greinke this offseason.  Every name on this list is a high-priced veteran, each with contracts valuing near or over $100 million.  Even the "small-market" Blue Jays joined in the fun adding Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, RA Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle.

What has all this spending returned to these teams?  It's still too early to tell for the Angels, Dodgers and Blue Jays, but the Yankees have yielded only one World Series title since 2000--in 2009.  Which suggests their spending of well over $1 billion in salary was unjustified.

I'm sure most of you are familiar with the term "moneyball" or at least the movie.  Teams are shifting in this direction.  It started with the A's.  Boston took the formula and added money--getting players who excel not only at getting on base but other things as well costs money.  Other teams have invested money into their drafts and growing their own talent rather than signing free agents.  The Giants have won two of the last three World Series because they drafted well--notably they drafted pitching well.  They play small ball offense and have shutdown pitching.

Even the Yankees haven't fully realized the importance of strong home-grown players.  Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada were all drafted by the Yankees and were key players in their run of four championships in five years.

To come back to the question: Some teams still have a mindset of getting the best free agents and building a roster that way.  But, others are having success by not following the fantasy baseball model.  So, real baseball is actually probably becoming less like fantasy baseball.

No comments: